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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their typical approach.
  • The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
  • The Minnesota Vikings defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.8 per game) this year.
  • The projections expect Josh Jacobs to total 4.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
  • Josh Jacobs has totaled a massive 6.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among running backs. (This might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Raiders to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 55.9% pass rate.
  • Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a measly 53.9 per game on average).
  • Josh Jacobs's 68.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks a noteable reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 86.3% figure.
  • This year, the strong Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered a feeble 26.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.

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