Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their typical approach.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.8 per game) this year.
The projections expect Josh Jacobs to total 4.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has totaled a massive 6.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among running backs. (This might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The model projects the Raiders to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 55.9% pass rate.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a measly 53.9 per game on average).
Josh Jacobs's 68.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks a noteable reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 86.3% figure.
This year, the strong Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered a feeble 26.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.