Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Josh Jacobs has been among the best pass-catching RBs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 22.0 yards per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.
Josh Jacobs's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 84.0% to 100.0%.
Josh Jacobs's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this season, accumulating 8.30 yards-per-target vs just 5.48 rate last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
Josh Jacobs has been a less important option in his offense's passing attack this season (6.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.5%).
Josh Jacobs has notched a meager -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 4th percentile among running backs.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (73.6%) to RBs since the start of last season (73.6%).

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