Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 2:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 8.01 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-most in the NFL.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has given their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.