Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 8:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Josh Jacobs has been heavily involved in his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 11.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 90th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has been among the best pass-catching RBs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 22.0 yards per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

The Raiders are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
Josh Jacobs has posted a measly -3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 2nd percentile among running backs.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.02 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the NFL.