Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling with backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Raiders are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (70.5%) vs. RBs this year (70.5%).
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown strong efficiency against RBs this year, allowing 4.09 yards-per-target to the position: the least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.82 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.

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