Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+106/-141).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to earn 4.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 12.2% this year, which places him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (76.2%) vs. running backs this year (76.2%).
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a mere 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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