Josh Jacobs Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+397/-844).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +406 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +397.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be much more involved in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (11.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.5% in games he has played).
Josh Jacobs's 19.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 89th percentile for running backs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Josh Jacobs has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among RBs, hauling in a terrific 86.2% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
Josh Jacobs does not have any receiving TDs this year.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 7th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.