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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Carries
Player Prop Week 9

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The predictive model expects Josh Jacobs to garner 17.5 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 8th-least run-focused team in the league (37.6% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.

Josh Jacobs has been a much smaller part of his team's run game this season (60.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (81.5%).

The Lions safeties project as the 6th-best group of safeties in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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