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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Carries
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a 5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per play.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.

The predictive model expects Josh Jacobs to earn 16.2 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile among RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Packers to be the 2nd-most run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 45.6% run rate.

After comprising 81.5% of his offense's rushing play calls last year, Josh Jacobs has had a smaller role in the run game this year, now sitting at only 57.4%.

The Minnesota defensive tackles profile as the 7th-best group of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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