Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this game, Josh Jacobs is forecasted by the model to rank in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs with 20.6 carries.
Among all running backs, Josh Jacobs grades out in the 100th percentile for carries this year, taking on 80.9% of the workload in his team's ground game.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football last year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being an enormous -14-point underdog in this week's contest.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Raiders to run on 40.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.8 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Raiders have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.6 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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