Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to total 19.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been a much bigger part of his offense's run game this season (84.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (67.7%).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-least run-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 35.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per snap.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 5th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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