Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+102/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -129 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to earn 18.2 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been much more involved in his offense's running game this season (84.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (67.7%).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.72 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends rank as the 4th-best DE corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on just 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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