Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 11, 2022 2:50 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 16.1 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year at run-game blocking.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends grade out as the worst group of DEs in football this year with their run defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Raiders are a massive 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be much less involved in his team's running game this week (73.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (83.8% in games he has played).

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