Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Carries

Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 9, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Raiders are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to earn 21.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been a more integral piece of his offense's running game this season (87.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (67.7%).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.