Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Carries

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+100/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to total 19.5 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been much more involved in his team's run game this season (87.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (67.7%).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends profile as the 2nd-worst DE corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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