Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Carries

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to garner 20.2 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has been a more integral piece of his offense's run game this season (85.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (67.7%).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in run blocking.
The Denver Broncos defensive ends project as the worst unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-worst paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.