Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Carries

Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -134 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to garner 18.8 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been a more integral piece of his offense's run game this year (85.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (67.7%).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.