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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -185 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.2 plays on offense run: the 5th-most among all games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

With an exceptional 18.6% Target Share (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Downs ranks as one of the wideouts with the most usage in the league.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.

With a terrific 3.9 adjusted catches per game (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Downs has been as one of the best WRs in the game in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to pass on 52.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

The Steelers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.6%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (61.6%).

When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's unit has been outstanding since the start of last season, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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