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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Colts to be the least pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 51.8% pass rate.
  • The model projects the Colts to run the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The model projects Josh Downs to accumulate 9.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • Josh Downs's 26.5% Target% this season represents a meaningful gain in his passing game usage over last season's 18.2% rate.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Colts are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 54.6 per game on average).
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.1 per game) this year.
  • Josh Downs's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 72.3% to 69.3%.

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