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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions

Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Colts, who are giant -7-point underdogs.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast Josh Downs to garner 7.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 54.3 per game on average).

This year, the fierce Lions defense has yielded a measly 62.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 10th-lowest rate in football.

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been very good this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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