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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts

Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+108/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +123 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

In this game, Josh Downs is expected by the predictive model to rank in the 80th percentile among wideouts with 7.3 targets.

Josh Downs has been a much bigger part of his offense's pass game this year (27.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.2%).

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Colts as the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The 4th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a lowly 53.4 per game on average).

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.

This year, the formidable Jets defense has given up a feeble 57.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

The Jets linebackers rank as the 5th-best collection of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

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