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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
  • In this game, Josh Downs is forecasted by the projections to place in the 97th percentile among WRs with 9.7 targets.
  • Josh Downs's 27.2% Target Rate this season conveys an impressive boost in his passing attack utilization over last season's 18.2% figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in football (55.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Indianapolis Colts.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Colts are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 61.2 total plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The Colts have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.2 plays per game.

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