Josh Downs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Downs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are anticipated by the projections to call 66.7 total plays in this contest: the most among all teams this week.
The 8th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Colts this year (a colossal 61.9 per game on average).
In this week's contest, Josh Downs is expected by our trusted projection set to place in the 81st percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.2 targets.
The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
With an impressive 5.1 adjusted receptions per game (84th percentile) this year, Josh Downs rates among the top pass-catching wide receivers in the league.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive strategy to skew 1.0% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Colts to pass on 55.3% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.6 per game) this year.

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