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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs this week, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual game plan.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

The predictive model expects Josh Downs to accrue 7.8 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 88th percentile among WRs.

Josh Downs has been a more integral piece of his team's passing game this year (25.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.2%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to pass on 53.5% of their plays: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Colts this year (a mere 53.7 per game on average).

Josh Downs's 3.86 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a substantial decline in his efficiency in the open field over last year's 4.9% figure.

The Houston Texans pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.4%) versus wide receivers this year (58.4%).

The Houston Texans pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus wideouts this year, giving up 7.36 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

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