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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the projections to run 65.6 offensive plays in this game: the 8th-most on the slate this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The projections expect Josh Downs to garner 8.1 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.

Josh Downs's 29.0% Target Share this season marks a material boost in his passing game usage over last season's 18.2% mark.

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Colts as the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a mere 53.0 per game on average).

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (just 28.4 per game) this year.

Josh Downs's 3.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a meaningful reduction in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 4.9% figure.

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