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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts

Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Colts to be the least pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 51.8% pass rate.

The model projects the Colts to run the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The model projects Josh Downs to accumulate 9.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Josh Downs's 26.5% Target% this season represents a meaningful gain in his passing game usage over last season's 18.2% rate.

Josh Downs has totaled significantly more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (42.0 per game).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 54.6 per game on average).

Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.1 per game) this year.

Josh Downs's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 72.3% to 69.3%.

The New York Giants pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.73 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in football.

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