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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 51.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

In this contest, Josh Downs is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 78th percentile among WRs with 7.2 targets.

Josh Downs has been a more integral piece of his offense's air attack this year (26.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.2%).

Josh Downs has put up many more air yards this season (55.0 per game) than he did last season (42.0 per game).

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Colts grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4-point advantage, the Colts are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have only 126.7 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.

The 4th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a mere 54.5 per game on average).

Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Titans, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.2 per game) this year.

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