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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts

Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.

The model projects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Denver Broncos defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.

In this contest, Josh Downs is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 78th percentile among wideouts with 6.9 targets.

Josh Downs's 26.5% Target Rate this season shows a noteworthy gain in his passing game workload over last season's 18.2% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 48.9% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

The 2nd-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 53.6 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

This year, the imposing Broncos pass defense has allowed the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing WRs: a meager 3.7 YAC.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Denver's CB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

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