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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts

Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

In this game, Josh Downs is expected by the predictive model to rank in the 80th percentile among wideouts with 7.3 targets.

Josh Downs has been a much bigger part of his offense's pass game this year (27.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.2%).

Josh Downs has notched far more air yards this year (53.0 per game) than he did last year (42.0 per game).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Colts as the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The 4th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a lowly 53.4 per game on average).

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.

The Jets defense has conceded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 118.0) versus wideouts this year.

This year, the formidable Jets defense has given up a feeble 57.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

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