Josh Downs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Downs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+110/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Colts to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Colts have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Josh Downs has been a key part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 19.6% this year, which places him in the 75th percentile among WRs.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Completion% in football (68.6%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (68.6%).

Favors Under

The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Colts as the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Josh Downs has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging just 6.68 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 24th percentile when it comes to wide receivers

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