Josh Downs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Josh Downs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 1:26 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Houston Texans pass defense has struggled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.11 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 123.0) to WRs since the start of last season.

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