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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 21

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+104/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see only 132.5 total plays run: the lowest number among all games this week.

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year.

With an exceptional ratio of 1.67 per game (85th percentile), Josh Allen has been among the top TD throwers in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 48.8% red zone pass rate.

The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (just 55.4 per game on average).

This year, the tough Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up a measly 1.33 passing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-lowest rate in football.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Kansas City's collection of LBs has been very good this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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