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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+107/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -139.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

With an exceptional rate of 1.73 per game (84th percentile), Josh Allen ranks among the leading touchdown throwers in the league this year.

The Jets defensive ends project as the 5th-worst DE corps in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 10-point advantage, the Bills are heavily favored in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to pass on 51.4% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The Bills rank as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 48.1% red zone pass rate.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see just 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.

The 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Bills this year (a mere 54.3 per game on average).

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