Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-204/+155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -147 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -204.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (67.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Bills.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Josh Allen's throwing precision has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.2% to 72.2%.
With an outstanding rate of 2.14 per game (97th percentile), Josh Allen rates as one of the leading TD throwers in football this year.

Favors Under

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 125.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.
This year, the fierce Buccaneers defense has given up a puny 1.00 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 5th-smallest rate in football.

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