Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
In this game, Josh Allen is expected by the projections to wind up with the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.5.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Josh Allen's 72.3% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a an impressive boost in his passing precision over last season's 64.2% rate.
With a remarkable rate of 2.17 per game (95th percentile), Josh Allen ranks among the best touchdown throwers in the league this year.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
The Patriots defense has yielded the 7th-fewest TDs through the air in the league: 1.00 per game this year.

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