Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +123 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
The Bills O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Josh Allen's throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.2% to 75.6%.
With an exceptional ratio of 2.25 per game (97th percentile), Josh Allen ranks as one of the leading touchdown throwers in the NFL this year.
This year, the shaky Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded a colossal 1.50 TDs through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-largest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Jacksonville's unit has been fantastic this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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