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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-134/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect the Bills as the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.

The leading projections forecast Josh Allen to attempt 38.0 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.

Josh Allen's passing precision has been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 64.2% to 73.7%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.0 plays per game.

When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's unit has been terrific since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the league.

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