Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-151/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 60.8% red zone pass rate.
Josh Allen has attempted 37.3 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
Josh Allen's passing precision has been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 64.2% to 77.2%.
Josh Allen has been among the leading touchdown passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 2.17 per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

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