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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (63.4% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.

In this week's game, Josh Allen is forecasted by the projection model to total the 10th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.4.

The Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Josh Allen has been among the best touchdown passers in football this year, averaging an outstanding 1.69 per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

This year, the porous Miami Dolphins defense has conceded a whopping 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-largest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 3 points.

To the extent of a defense's influence on pace, at 28.47 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills as the 6th-most sluggish in the league (in a neutral context) right now.

The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

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