Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
At the present time, the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (60.2% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bills.
In this game, Josh Allen is projected by the model to total the 4th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.4.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
Josh Allen's 69.7% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a remarkable gain in his passing accuracy over last year's 64.2% rate.

Favors Under

To the extent of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.97 seconds per play, the model projects the Bills as the slowest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.0 per game) this year.

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