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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+160).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (60.2% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bills.

In this game, Josh Allen is projected by the model to total the 4th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.4.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.

Josh Allen's 69.7% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a remarkable gain in his passing accuracy over last year's 64.2% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

To the extent of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.97 seconds per play, the model projects the Bills as the slowest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.0 per game) this year.

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