Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
In logging a monstrous 36.6 pass attempts per game this year, Josh Allen slots in among the top quarterbacks in the league (76th percentile) by this measure.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Josh Allen's 71.2% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates an impressive gain in his throwing precision over last season's 64.2% mark.
Josh Allen has been one of the best TD passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 1.90 per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
This year, the formidable Jets defense has conceded a paltry 1.00 TDs through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-best rate in football.

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