Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-185/+155).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.9% pass rate.
In totaling a staggering 37.7 pass attempts per game this year, Josh Allen rates among the top QBs in football (84th percentile) in this respect.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in football this year.
Josh Allen's passing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.2% to 72.5%.
Josh Allen has been one of the best TD passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 2.00 per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 61.0 total plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: fewest in football.

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