Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+160/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -207 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -225.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 71.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 39.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
Josh Allen has been among the best TD passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 2.71 per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-lowest level in the league against the New York Jets defense this year (66.7%).
The New York Jets defense has surrendered the 9th-least passing TDs in the NFL: 1.12 per game this year.
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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