Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 42.5 passes this week, on average: the most of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in football.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 9th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.