Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-285/+185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -225 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -285.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 68.0% pass rate.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's game.
Josh Allen has attempted 35.4 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 75th percentile among QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Tennessee Titans defense has given up the 10th-least passing TDs in the league: 1.44 per game since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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