Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-204/+146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -204.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 38.5 passes in this contest, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in the league vs. the New England Patriots defense this year (67.1%).
The New England Patriots safeties project as the 4th-best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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