Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.7% pass rate.
Josh Allen has attempted 38.1 throws per game this year, grading out in the 86th percentile among quarterbacks.
Josh Allen has been among the best touchdown passers in football this year, averaging a stellar 2.14 per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in the league against the Chicago Bears defense this year (73.5%).

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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