Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+144/-186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +148 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 40.3 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
Josh Allen has been among the leading touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 2.10 per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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