Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-230/+170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 69.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-highest level in the NFL vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year (72.5%).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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