Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
The leading projections forecast Josh Allen to notch 6.1 rush attempts this week, on balance: the 4th-most among all QBs.
While Josh Allen has received 17.2% of his team's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Buffalo's running game in this week's contest at 23.2%.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Tampa Bay's DE corps has been very bad this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bills to be the 3rd-least run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 32.3% run rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 125.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.
When talking about run support (and the importance it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year.
Josh Allen has rushed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (21.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
Josh Allen's running efficiency has diminished this season, averaging just 5.37 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 7.24 rate last season.

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